Experimental evidence that livestock grazing intensity affects cyclic vole population regulation processes

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Spatial patterns of the temporal dynamics of three gadoid species along the Norwegian Skagerrak coast

Journal home page: http://www.int-res.com/journals/meps/Time series from an extensive research survey of juveniles of cod Gadus morhua, pollack Pollachius pollachius and whiting Merlangius merlangus sampled from 1919 to 1994 at 38 stations along the Norwegian Skagerrak coast were investigated. Spatial and temporal analyses were performed to study the spatial pattern of the temporal dynamics of the 3 fish species. Spatially consistent variations were detected in abundance, year-to-year fluctuation as well as in periodicity. The spatial heterogeneity occurred at a mesoscale (differences between fjords) and at a local scale (differences between stations within a fjord) for the 3 gadoids. However, the magnitude of the spatial heterogeneity differed between species. Cod and whiting, which were more abundant in sheltered areas, showed higher spatial variability than pollack, which was more abundant in exposed locations. In this way, the spatial pattern of abundance appeared to be linked to the scale of variability of the species. All 3 species exhibit periodic fluctuations of 2 to 2.5 yr in their optimal habitats, which probably resulted from intrinsic interactions in age-structured populations, such as density-dependent competition and cannibalism. In addition, all the species exhibited long-term trends possibly due to extrinsic forces, such as environmental changes or anthropogenic influences

Cod response to past and current warm phases in the Seas of Iceland, a time series analysis

Climate change, and in particular global warming, is already affecting the Arctic and is expected to continue in the near future. A sustainable use the Arctic resources requires an increased understanding of its functioning that helps us anticipate change and adapt to it. Cod time series in Iceland cover a period of more than 50 years. Three distinct phases can be identified over this span of time: (1) the current warm phase characterised by relatively high cod biomasses, (2) an earlier phase (around the 1950s) with similar conditions separated by (3) some 20 years of cold temperatures and low biomasses. The aim of this study is to identify possible regime-dependent dynamics associated to these warm and cold phases that can help us identify key drivers in the current and future warm regime. To do this we compiled a database of fishing pressure, hydrographical and biological (copepods and euphausiids) variables as well as three cod population descriptors: (i) total spawning stock biomass, (ii) the population growth rate derived from matrix population models and (iii) disaggregated number at age time series. These three cod indices were subsequently regressed (GAM and threshold GAM) against the environmental and anthropogenic variables. Our results point out a probable regime-dependent mechanism where plankton effects would only be important for cod under warm conditions. No threshold-like responses were found in the population growth rate nor in the number at age for the various age classes

Leaf economics fundamentals explained by optimality principles

The life span of leaves increases with their mass per unit area (LMA). It is unclear why. Here, we show that this empirical generalization (the foundation of the worldwide leaf economics spectrum) is a consequence of natural selection, maximizing average net carbon gain over the leaf life cycle. Analyzing two large leaf trait datasets, we show that evergreen and deciduous species with diverse construction costs (assumed proportional to LMA) are selected by light, temperature, and growing-season length in different, but predictable, ways. We quantitatively explain the observed divergent latitudinal trends in evergreen and deciduous LMA and show how local distributions of LMA arise by selection under different environmental conditions acting on the species pool. These results illustrate how optimality principles can underpin a new theory for plant geography and terrestrial carbon dynamics

How predation and landscape fragmentation affect vole population dynamics

Background: Microtine species in Fennoscandia display a distinct north-south gradient from regular cycles to stable populations. The gradient has often been attributed to changes in the interactions between microtines and their predators. Although the spatial structure of the environment is known to influence predator-prey dynamics of a wide range of species, it has scarcely been considered in relation to the Fennoscandian gradient. Furthermore, the length of microtine breeding season also displays a north-south gradient. However, little consideration has been given to its role in shaping or generating population cycles. Because these factors covary along the gradient it is difficult to distinguish their effects experimentally in the field. The distinction is here attempted using realistic agent-based modelling. Methodology/Principal Findings: By using a spatially explicit computer simulation model based on behavioural and ecological data from the field vole (Microtus agrestis), we generated a number of repeated time series of vole densities whose mean population size and amplitude were measured. Subsequently, these time series were subjected to statistical autoregressive modelling, to investigate the effects on vole population dynamics of making predators more specialised, of altering the breeding season, and increasing the level of habitat fragmentation. We found that fragmentation as well as the presence of specialist predators are necessary for the occurrence of population cycles. Habitat fragmentation and predator assembly jointly determined cycle length and amplitude. Length of vole breeding season had little impact on the oscillations. Significance: There is good agreement between our results and the experimental work from Fennoscandia, but our results allow distinction of causation that is hard to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of landscape fragmentation for population cycling and we recommend that the degree of fragmentation be more fully considered in future analyses of vole dynamics

Development and resilience in three Arctic ecosystems: Baltic, Barents and Iceland Seas

In this GreenMAR project we look into the historical development of the marine ecosystems that surround the Nordic countries in an effort to forecast their future evolution. We pay particular attention to the way their food webs responded to similar stressors (warming) and fishing regimes in the past. We have compiled historical information on environmental and biological components, from plankton to fish, over the last 25 to 45 years, depending on the system. On these four ecosystems we have: (i) carried out multivariate analyses to describe their main trends and (ii) constructed stability landscapes to quantify their resilience. We will show these results and discuss their implications

How to avoid a local epidemic becoming a global pandemic

Here, we combine international air travel passenger data with a standard epidemiological model of the initial 3 mo of the COVID-19 pandemic (January through March 2020; toward the end of which the entire world locked down). Using the information available during this initial phase of the pandemic, our model accurately describes the main features of the actual global development of the pandemic demonstrated by the high degree of coherence between the model and global data. The validated model allows for an exploration of alternative policy efficacies (reducing air travel and/or introducing different degrees of compulsory immigration quarantine upon arrival to a country) in delaying the global spread of SARS-CoV-2 and thus is suggestive of similar efficacy in anticipating the spread of future global disease outbreaks. We show that a lesson from the recent pandemic is that reducing air travel globally is more effective in reducing the global spread than adopting immigration quarantine. Reducing air travel out of a source country has the most important effect regarding the spreading of the disease to the rest of the world. Based upon our results, we propose a digital twin as a further developed tool to inform future pandemic decision-making to inform measures intended to control the spread of disease agents of potential future pandemics. We discuss the design criteria for such a digital twin model as well as the feasibility of obtaining access to the necessary online data on international air travel

Climate and Dispersal: Black-Winged Stilts Disperse Further in Dry Springs

Climate affects the abundance and distribution of many species of wildlife. Nevertheless, the potential effects of climate on dispersive behaviour remain unstudied. Here, I combine data from (i) a long-term Black-winged Stilt (Himantopus himantopus) monitoring program, (ii) a capture-recapture marking program in Doñana, and (iii) reports from the Rare Birds Committee in the United Kingdom to analyse at different geographical scales the relationship between climate, survival, philopatry, and dispersive behaviour. Black-winged Stilt populations varied in size in consonance with changes in both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and local rainfall during the breeding season. Changes in population size are related to changes in philopatry and increases in dispersal beyond the traditional range of the species. The results indicate that climatic conditions influence the dispersive behaviour of individual birds, explaining rapid changes in the local population of this species breeding in unstable Mediterranean wetlands

Investigation of the Climatic and Environmental Context of Hendra Virus Spillover Events 1994–2010

Hendra virus is a recently emerged bat-borne zoonotic agent with high lethality in horses and humans in Australia. This is a rare disease and the determinants of bat to horse transmission, including the factors that bring these hosts together at critical times, are poorly understood. In this cross-disciplinary study climatic and vegetation primary productivity variables are compared for the dispersed and heterogenic 1994–2010 outbreak sites. The significant occurrence of spillover events within the dry season (p =  0.013, 95% CI (0.57–0.98)) suggests seasonal forcing of transmission across species, or seasonal forcing of virus excretion by the reservoir host. We explore the evidence for both. Preliminary investigations of the spatial determinants of Hendra disease locations are also presented. We find that postal areas in the Australian state of Queensland in which pteropid fruit bat (flying fox) roosts occur are approximately forty times more likely (OR = 40.5, (95% CI (5.16, 317.52)) to be the location of Hendra spillover events. This appears to be independent of density of horses at these locations. We consider issues of scale of host resource use, land use change and limitations of existing data that challenge analysis and limit further conclusive outcomes. This investigation of a broad range of potential climatic and environmental influences provides a good base for future investigations. Further understanding of cross-species Hendra virus transmission requires better understanding of flying fox resource use in the urban-rural landscape

Education can improve the negative perception of a threatened long-lived scavenging bird, the Andean condor

Human-wildlife conflicts currently represent one of the main conservation problems for wildlife species around the world. Vultures have serious conservation concerns, many of which are related to people's adverse perception about them due to the belief that they prey on livestock. Our aim was to assess local perception and the factors influencing people's perception of the largest scavenging bird in South America, the Andean condor. For this, we interviewed 112 people from Valle Fértil, San Juan province, a rural area of central west Argentina. Overall, people in the area mostly have an elementary education, and their most important activity is livestock rearing. The results showed that, in general, most people perceive the Andean condor as an injurious species and, in fact, some people recognize that they still kill condors. We identified two major factors that affect this perception, the education level of villagers and their relationship with livestock ranching. Our study suggests that conservation of condors and other similar scavengers depends on education programs designed to change the negative perception people have about them. Such programs should be particularly focused on ranchers since they are the ones who have the worst perception of these scavengers. We suggest that highlighting the central ecological role of scavengers and recovering their cultural value would be fundamental to reverse their persecution and their negative perception by people.Fil: Cailly Arnulphi, Verónica Beatríz. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Juan. Centro de Investigaciones de la Geosfera y Biosfera. Universidad Nacional de San Juan. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones de la Geosfera y Biosfera; ArgentinaFil: Lambertucci, Sergio Agustin. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; ArgentinaFil: Borghi, Carlos Eduardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Juan. Centro de Investigaciones de la Geosfera y Biosfera. Universidad Nacional de San Juan. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones de la Geosfera y Biosfera; Argentin